Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
