A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
